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 Solar cycles 24/25 minimum

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Bean



Posts : 24
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Join date : 2019-06-29

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PostSubject: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeWed Sep 18, 2019 5:54 pm

drkstrong has been abit quite of late on his youtube channel as regards what the Suns been upto on a monthly basis but heres his latest offering, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-Efc75RIWM at the start he said maxiumum but should ? have said minimum when talking about waiting seven months and maybe should have explained the 13 month SSN is half a month at each end and 12 months in between for the smoothing.
The latest 'T' index table https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/4/1 would also indicate that Solar minimum is still afew months away yet !
Always remember the Sun does what it wants not what humans predict.
73
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Paulie

Paulie

Posts : 87
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Join date : 2019-09-06
QTH or Location : Texas USA
Equipment Used : For Amateur Radio: YAESU FTDX3000 w/Heil PR40 mic, FT450AT w/MD100 mic & FT857D for mobile - Ameritron ALS-600 amp. CB: Vintage Cobra 142GTL w/Turner Super Side Kick mic..

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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeSat Sep 28, 2019 10:43 pm

Interesting stuff, indeed. Things aren't ideal at the moment, but I'm still making some nice DX contacts on FT8. Yesterday I worked Asiatic Russia 6,800 mi. and New Zealand 7,800 mi. with 40W on 40 meters. (I'm in Texas.) I have an inverted V 1/2 wave dipole at +/- 30' that performs very well.
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Bean



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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeTue Oct 01, 2019 11:55 am

Well a new region has appeared on the Suns disk today , whether it will  hang about long enough to
get a number remains to be seen. Its in the Southern hemisphere , not sure of polarity but its close to the Equator which still leaves me to believe Solar minimum wont be till sometime in the first quater of 2020 ( as I've been saying this for about a year and a half I got to stick with it LOL ) so in about 12/18 months we should be back to about where we are now as regards propagation and the upturn will kick in around end 2022 ish with Solar max. end 2025/26 ?.
Just my opinion .
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Paulie

Paulie

Posts : 87
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Join date : 2019-09-06
QTH or Location : Texas USA
Equipment Used : For Amateur Radio: YAESU FTDX3000 w/Heil PR40 mic, FT450AT w/MD100 mic & FT857D for mobile - Ameritron ALS-600 amp. CB: Vintage Cobra 142GTL w/Turner Super Side Kick mic..

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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeWed Oct 02, 2019 8:01 pm

I can't see any reason to disagree with you. It appears that there won't be much meat on the bone for some time to come. In the interim, I'll continue on with NVIS on 40 meters for regional phone and DX digital contacts (CW & FT8) where I can find them. Its all fun to me.
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Bean



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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeSat Oct 05, 2019 10:07 am

Region 2749 lasted just two days before being classed as a Plage and these short lived Sunspots ( in my opinion ) can be expected to be the norm. over the next eighteen months should Solar minimum occur around March 2020 ? Current solar disk images can be found at https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/
and with a combination of the magnetogram image and HALES POLARITY LAW / SPORER'S LAW its possible to tell which cycle a region/sunspot belongs to.
Cycle 24 > Northern hemisphere = black leading white
> Southern hemisphere = white leading black
> near equator 5-10 deg.
Cycle 25> Northern hemisphere = white leading black
> Southern hemisphere = black leading white
> high latitudes 30-40 deg
White areas are the magnetic field North moving away from the Sun, black areas are South moving towards the Sun.
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Bean



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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeTue Oct 22, 2019 10:00 am

The adjusted Solar flux density ( which takes into account the Earths eliptical orbit ) readings for yesterday 21/10/2019, 17.00utc = 64.1 / 20.00utc = 63.4 / 23.00utc = 63.5 .How the month stacks up as a whole remains to be seen but it is touted that Solar minimum occurs within three months +/- of the lowest reading but the following months could be even lower ?
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26TC62

26TC62

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QTH or Location : Portsmouth
Call Sign : 26TC62, 26CT2817
Equipment Used : Yaesu 891, 10m pole, wire 5/8, T2LT

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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeTue Oct 22, 2019 11:07 am

It is an interesting minimum, because we are down near the lowest-ever recorded SF figures , but of course the key word is "recorded" - we only started measuring 10.7cm flux in the 1950s and clearly there is plenty of scope to go even lower in SF.

What the minimum does give us more opportunity to think about is "what is the impact of meteor showers on prop at 27MHz?", because it seems likely that quite a bit of what people are chalking up as conventional Sp-E lately could just as likely be meteor scatter given the patchy nature of it.
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Bean



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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeTue Oct 22, 2019 12:46 pm

One of the key factors in sporadic E or at least one of the types of sporadic E causes comes from the ionsizing of particles left over from meteor showers, listening to meteor scatter is a totally different thing and easy to tell (imo) on 10m etc simply by the brief bursts of audio that appear maybe once or thrice from distance stations never to be heard again.
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Bean



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PostSubject: Re: Solar cycles 24/25 minimum   Solar cycles 24/25 minimum Icon_minitimeTue Dec 10, 2019 9:00 am

Latest predictions from those who should know , released yesterday have Solar max for cycle 25 around 2025 with about the same strength as cycle 24. Cycle 24/25 minimum is expected to occur +/-6months of April 2020 so October 2019> October 2020 ?? . Current window for the 24/25 minimum as it stands ( in my book) is July 2019 > January 2020 so by their predictions their not expecting any upturn in Sunspot numbers for a good 6 months yet !
The Sun does what it wants not what humans predict.
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